So, I have a cold again. This time so far it's just a sore throat. The problem is I'm going on vacation in 36 hours and it would certainly suck to be stuck in my hotel room the whole time. So far if I drug myself up I can probably make it out but I'm going to Hong Kong again and according to the weather forecast it's 84 but feels like 94 because of humidity. Walking around sweating to death might not be best for a cold.

Today, as I contemplated the suckage I remembered I read somewhere the average adult gets a cold 3 times a year. That same document says symptoms usually last a week.

So I got to thinking, what are the odds I'll be sick with a cold any one day. Assuming an average of 3 times a year and a week of symptoms per cold that's 21 days out of 365 or a 1 in 17 chance of being sick any one day. For example I've been sick Christmas day and missed out on family celebrations twice in my life. Given a 1 in 17 in chance that means on average I should miss one Christmas every 17 years. Another way to look at it, in the states, assuming 6 major holidays, Christmas, Thanksgiving, New Years, Easter, Memorial Day, Labor Day that means the odds of being sick on one of those days each year is 6/17ths or better than 1 in 3!

Worse, as far as I know those stats are for colds only. Other things like back−pain or headaches or whatever other ailments a person might have only make the odds higher.

Back to Vacation, If the odds of being sick with a cold any one day are 1 in 17 then if you have a week long vacation the odds are 7 in 17 one of those vacation days will overlap a sick day. That's 1 chance in 2.4. In other words, every two˜three times you take a week long vacation odds are you'll have a cold during part of it.

I guess that makes this cold that will most likely overlap my vacation not so unlikely. I only hope since the symptoms started Sunday and I leave Friday that they'll be over soon and I can enjoy most of my vacation 😊